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Post by auntym on Oct 30, 2011 16:00:45 GMT -6
www.santacruzsentinel.com/localnews/ci_19226612 The man who listens for the aliens[/color] -by Wallace Baine Posted: 10/30/2011 When visitors from an alien world finally get around to dropping in on us Earthlings, they will not say "Take me to your leader" like they did in every cheesy '50s sci-fi movie. My bet is that they'll say, "Take me to Santa Cruz." Why? Because that's where they'll find Frank Drake. If you ranked every one of the Earth's 7 billion people on their qualifications to be the first human to greet an alien life form, Frank would finish in the top 10, if not No. 1 -- I worked out my own rank to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 28 millionth, just behind Joaquin Phoenix and just ahead of the guy who wrote that old disco song "Funky Town," which is something to be proud of, I think. Frank Drake, if you don't know the name, is an astronomer and one of the world's pioneers in the field of SETI, or the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, which is remarkable considering that most of us are still coming up short in the Search for Terrestrial Intelligence. Frank is a professor emeritus from UC Santa Cruz, but was also a longtime friend and colleague of the late Carl Sagan at Cornell University. He and Sagan, in fact, collaborated on the "Arecibo Message," a digital code sent out to space in an effort to communicate beyond human language. You might find it handy to think of Frank as Sagan without the TV show and the turtleneck. This week marks a big anniversary in the history of SETI. It was 50 years ago that Frank came up with what's known in astronomy and astrophysics circles -- they must have a Facebook page, right? -- as the "Drake Equation." I learned this from Frank himself hurtling down Highway 17 as I accompanied him and his lovely wife Amahl to Moffett Field in Mountain View, where we had the chance to see a retro-fitted commercial airline jet carrying a sophisticated infrared telescope called SOFIA -- it was more exciting than it sounds, trust me. The Drake Equation is essentially an effort to apply scientific precision to perhaps one of the most eternal mysteries of the human experience: Is there anybody out there? It expresses a probability based on several factors. The equation puts a framework to the seemingly contradictory possibilities that might occur to anyone lying in the backyard gazing up at the night sky. If you're of an expansive frame of mind and can stop thinking about checking your Twitter feed for one darn minute, you might ponder that the number of known stars in the universe is so enormous that the possibility that one of them might harbor a planet like ours is pretty big. Then, you ponder, that the atmosphere of the Earth and the chain of circumstances that led to the evolution of the human animal is so mind-bogglingly unlikely that the possibility again sinks back down toward zero. In the same way that you and I are always thinking about our fantasy football teams -- OK, maybe that's just me -- Frank thinks about the cosmos. A conversation with him might include such topics as "rogue planets," that is, planets that have somehow broken free of the orbit of their mother star and are now hurtling aimlessly through space like a Sunday driver in the Napa Valley. Wait, what? "Rogue planets"? CONTINUE READING: www.santacruzsentinel.com/localnews/ci_19226612
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Post by auntym on Nov 1, 2011 22:54:36 GMT -6
www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335734/title/The_Drake_Equation_All_in_the_family Nadia Drake interviews the creator of the formula for predicting how many detectable civilizations exist in the Milky Way[/color] By Nadia Drake Web edition : Tuesday, November 1st, 2011 On November 1, the formula for estimating the abundance of extraterrestrial life in our galaxy celebrates its 50th birthday. It’s known as the Drake equation for its creator, Frank Drake, who is also my father. The equation grew out of my dad’s need to organize a meeting he’d convened at the Green Bank Observatory, in West Virginia. Then 31, he had been thinking for a while about the materials needed to build communicating, extraterrestrial life. He ended up crafting a formula that calculates the number of detectable, intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. That equation is now found in most astronomy textbooks. “It was just something that had been in my mind for months. It wasn’t 'ah-hah,' it was just — to me — obvious,” he recalled during a recent interview with me. [Subscribers to Science News can read the complete Q&A here. It will also be available in the November 7 issue of Science News Prime, the tablet version of Science News available on the iPad.] To that meeting in Green Bank, my dad invited “everybody in the world” he could think of with a scientific interest in extraterrestrial intelligence — all 12 people. Carl Sagan was there. Otto Struve was there. Melvin Calvin was there. At the time, looking for aliens still sat on the fringes of science. But in the intervening five decades, searching for extraterrestrial intelligence has moved inside, even taking up residence in people’s homes. As radio telescopes turned a hopeful ear to the stars and optical telescopes kept their eyes peeled for an illuminated alien pulse, a cavalry of citizens armed with personal computers sorted through jumbles of data. A new branch of science — astrobiology — even grew up and dedicated itself to the scientific search for little green men — or at least microbes — and the places they might call home... CONTINUE READING: www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335734/title/The_Drake_Equation_All_in_the_family
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Post by satansrini on Nov 2, 2011 0:08:26 GMT -6
Drake Equation (courtesy - wikipedia): The Drake equation states that: where: N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible; and R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space fl = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space It is a beautifully conceived equation with a lot of considerations. But I am afraid it would remain and be remembered as one of those 'first works' that paved path to much more than something like Newtonian Physics or Einstein's equations that are of practical use. Our understanding of the universe and life in general is quite nascent no matter how much we think we have a grasp of it. As late as 1995 we first discovered exo-planets. We are not yet able to get a proper visual lock on even the closes exo-planets. A decade later, we are able to find some terrestrial planets. We identified that Jupiter is a small gas giant.. and planets of much bigger size are possible. Very recently we understood that planets do not form with stars that are around Category 'O' stars. The goldilock zone is different for stars of different sizes.. All this weren't understood at the time Drake Equation was formulated. However it is the best possible thing they have come up with based on their at the time - current knowledge and considerations. It will be a platform for much greater work before we can arrive at a probabilistic equation of some soundness. Finally one thing at the time Drake Equation did not consider is the number of moons around giant planets that can support life. Now I think we are yet to discover great number of 'Exo-Moons' not sure even if 1 has yet been detected. But it is safe to assume there are. Therefore the equation might soon transform (considering all other factors being the same as before) to have another factor like fm - factor solar systems with moons and then support life.. then intelligent life and so on. Actually in future i wouldn't be surprise if we discover something that has a sub-moon. Like a giant planet may be 10-20 jupiter masses.. has a terrestrial moon as big as say 5-10 earth masses.. which inturn has a terrestrial sub-moon about 10 moon masses!!! Imagine.. i think we are yet to encounter that! (like a planetary system within a solar system)! Regards, Srinivas
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Post by skywalker on Nov 2, 2011 20:39:59 GMT -6
I think the Drake Equation has too many wild guesses in it. There is no way they could possibly know even half the answers to the questions they were asking. They don't even know how many stars are in our galaxy so how can they possibly know any of the other info? It is pretty much useless as far as I am concerned.
That idea about the sub-moons was kind of cool though. I had never even thought about that. I wonder if our moon has anything orbiting around it besides our satellites and space garbage? A few asteroids maybe? Would the gravitational pull from the nearby larger planet disrupt the orbit around the Moon? Probably not since we have moons orbiting planets and planets orbiting the Sun. I wonder if the Sun is orbiting anything? A black hole maybe?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2011 10:30:15 GMT -6
Theory is that all galaxy's have a center black hole that keeps the objects in flux around it forming the galaxy..but we're not quite far sighted enough to be able to prove it. There is possibly one at the center of our own galaxy and that's one of the theories of 2012. We all speculate, most do anyway...scientists just call it science instead of speculation ;D
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2011 12:18:45 GMT -6
Speculation... Science...
Po-tay-toe... po-tah-toe...
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Post by satansrini on Nov 4, 2011 13:21:30 GMT -6
Jo & Lo.. wow that rhymes!! Or do we call.. Lo & Jo.. I think Lo & Jo sounds better.. ok.. decided.. ;D Dear Lo & Jo, This is what I think - Speculation is when we make a prediction or guess expecting or wanting an outcome or result. Science is about making assumptions or guesses to gain knowledge with no expectations on the outcome. Therefore failure in speculation causes disappointment. Failure in science leads to new knowledge! - That you were wrong I think the Drake Equation has too many wild guesses in it. There is no way they could possibly know even half the answers to the questions they were asking. They don't even know how many stars are in our galaxy so how can they possibly know any of the other info? It is pretty much useless as far as I am concerned. The objective of the Drake Equation is not to find out the exact number of civilizations in a galaxy but to make an estimate that proves possibility of existence of life outside Earth. We don't even know if there is life on Europa.. It is quite natural that we can't have answers to the questions posed by the formula. But as we have answers, we fill the details. It works initially on estimates.. then once we get factual information we plug it in.. and all of a sudden we might think.. "wait... that is not right"!! and then we go about making changed to the equation itself.. Thats the whole objective to put the best we can withing the boundaries of the knowledge we have. I agree with you it is far from complete or accurate. However I think it will be a foundation for others to build on.. but furthering it or correcting it or scrapping it completely. In any which way, they have a reference point. I think Drake Equation has served its purpose of its generation. Regards, Srinivas
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Post by satansrini on Nov 4, 2011 13:49:17 GMT -6
That idea about the sub-moons was kind of cool though. I had never even thought about that. I wonder if our moon has anything orbiting around it besides our satellites and space garbage? A few asteroids maybe? Would the gravitational pull from the nearby larger planet disrupt the orbit around the Moon? Probably not since we have moons orbiting planets and planets orbiting the Sun. I wonder if the Sun is orbiting anything? A black hole maybe? Thank you. I had also never thought of it before! It was just a thought at the time and I just put it across! But it is quite possible theoretically. And it might be possible around red giants or something. The size of the planets orbiting the star depend on the size and mass of the star. An O class star which is like some 50 times heavier than our Sun which is about 30,000 times as bright and about 2000 times the size can have a planet that is as big as 20 jupiters. If we looked at our own Jupiter, it sort of acts as the big brother. It's mass is about 80% of all planetary mass or something. It therefore has about 60 moons. Jupiter because of its extensive gravity pull, absorbs a lot of stuff like radiation protecting Earth. So if we had a planet the mass of say 15-20 Jupiters or so, the planet's size is about that of a dwarf star - like a white dwarf. It can even be bigger. So It has all the qualities to be dependent on the big star at the same time, have its own system. Ofcourse this is just my theory. Moon is too close to us. If anything is orbiting us, we would have known by now. Besides, the gravitational pull of moon is quite low therefore, it can't really have anything spinning around it. Our sun definitely has a centre, which is the Milkyway Galactic centre and it is mostly presumed to be a black hole. However, i do not think Sun is revolving around the centre. If that were to be the case, for the mass and relative speed, we should be able to notice changes in the space surrounding us. Like we won't be able to see the same stars at the same seasons and orientations for 10000 years or something. In India, we always see the Orion constellation during winter and it has been the case for 1000s of years. If Sub is revolving, I don't think that would be the case. Just like the way the night sky changes from season to season as earth revolves around the sun, we must observe a similar effect if Sun revolves. So I don't think so. But then again, we can't be sure. Coz if really Sun is revolving then it has to cover huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge distance and probably the 5000 years we saw as civilisations is too small a time stamp! Regards, Srinivas
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Post by skywalker on Nov 4, 2011 19:51:26 GMT -6
The objective of the Drake Equation is not to find out the exact number of civilizations in a galaxy but to make an estimate that proves possibility of existence of life outside Earth. If they want to know whether it is possible there could be life outside the Earth all they have to do is look at the Earth and their question is answered. If it is possible for life to develop on this planet than it is possible for life to develop on other planets. The fact that there is life on Earth proves it. I personally think there is life on all of the planets. It may not be complex life forms and it may not be as plentiful as it is here, but there is still life out there. We just have to go out and find it. Mars would be the first place I would suggest to look. The photos that have been taken of that planet have shown some extremely interesting things.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2011 1:02:20 GMT -6
Like Skywalker said, that is a good idea Satansrini about adding the moons into the equation ! Good thinking on that ! It could even magnify the equation more . I never thought of it either or heard it mentioned before. I think the Drake equation is an understatement . When the James Webb telescope is launched into orbit I have the feeling that many more solar systems will be discovered with many more planets being possible candidates for life . What a great era we live in for scientific discoveries !
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Post by auntym on Jun 23, 2013 13:50:28 GMT -6
io9.com/what-a-brand-new-equation-reveals-about-our-odds-of-fin-531575395 A New Equation Reveals Our Exact Odds of Finding Alien Life George Dvorsky Friday June 21, 2013 It’s been over half a century since Frank Drake developed an equation to estimate the probability of finding intelligent life in our galaxy. We’ve learned a lot since then, prompting an astrophysicist from MIT to come up with her own take on the equation. Here’s how the new formula works — and how it could help in the search for alien life. The new formula was devised by Sara Seager, a professor of planetary science and physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I contacted her to learn more about the new equation and why the time was right for a rethink. Assessing the Probability of Intelligent Life Back in 1961, Frank Drake proposed a probabilistic formula to help estimate the number of active, radio-capable extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. It goes like this: A New Equation Reveals Our Exact Odds of Finding Alien Life DRAKE'S EQUATION Where: N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might hope to be able to communicate R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fl is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into spacePeople have plugged in a variety of values over the past 50 years — all of them purely speculative. Values for N have ranged anywhere from one (i.e. here's looking at you kid) up to the millions. A New Equation Reveals Our Exact Odds of Finding Alien Life “The original Drake Equation just gave us the format with which to see what the different ingredients would be,” Seager told io9. “No one had ever quantitatively organized our thoughts before. That’s the revolutionary nature of the equation.” But it can never give us a quantitative answer, she says, and we shouldn’t expect the equation to be a real equation in the sense that we can have precise definitions for each term. “It’s a wonderful, amazing, innovative way for us to think about intelligent life — or the existence of intelligent life,” she says, “But there are just so many unknowns that can’t be quantified.” But things have changed since 1951. Thanks to the Kepler Space Telescope, we now know that there's an absolute plethora of exoplanets out there. What’s more, they come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, they orbit a diverse array of stars, and they reside in solar systems that scarcely resemble our own. Our sense of the galaxy is changing dramatically with each new discovery — as is our sense of its potential to harbor life. Given all this new information, Seager felt that the time was right to rethink the Drake Equation. SEE NEW EQUATION: io9.com/what-a-brand-new-equation-reveals-about-our-odds-of-fin-531575395
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Post by auntym on Sept 24, 2013 14:58:49 GMT -6
www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2013/09/the-great-silence-beyond-drakes-equation-todays-most-popular.htmlSeptember 24, 2013 "The Great Search" --Beyond Drake's Equation The SETI project – Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – has been in existence in one form or another for several decades, dating back to American astronomer Frank Drake’s first SETI experiment named Project Ozma. SETI is basically the search for intelligence through listening for radio waves of another civilization. For Drake back in the 1960’s, this was the sign of a technologically prevalent society, and the smartest means to search for life. Beyond 500 light-years away, the chance of detecting any signal from an advanced civilization approaches zero. And that is exactly the range in which our present technology is searching for extraterrestrial radio signals. So, the “Great Silence” detected by our radio telescopes is not discouraging at all. Our signals just need to travel a little farther – at least 900 light years more – before they have a high chance of coming across an advanced alien civilization. In 1961 the Russian cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first man to orbit Earth, while Frank Drake (image below) developed his now famous Drake Equation, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our Milky Way galaxy, based on current electromagnetic detection methods. technologically prevalent society, and the smartest means to search for life. Beyond 500 light-years away, the chance of detecting any signal from an advanced civilization approaches zero. And that is exactly the range in which our present technology is searching for extraterrestrial radio signals. So, the “Great Silence” detected by our radio telescopes is not discouraging at all. Our signals just need to travel a little farther – at least 900 light years more – before they have a high chance of coming across an advanced alien civilization. In 1961 the Russian cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first man to orbit Earth, while Frank Drake (image below) developed his now famous Drake Equation, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our Milky Way galaxy, based on current electromagnetic detection methods. Dv0506drake-final0001 The Drake equation states: N = Ns x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x fL N = number of alien civilizations in the Milky Way Ns = estimated number of stars in the Milky Way; fp = fraction or percentage of these stars with planets on its orbits; ne = average number of these planets with potential to host life as we know it; fl = percentage of these planets that actually develop life; fi = percentage of these planets that actually develop intelligence on human level; fc = percentage of these civilizations that actually develop electromagnetic radiation emitting technologies; fL = percentage of these civilizations that keep emitting electromagnetic signals to space. This factor is extremely dependent on the lifetime a civilization remains electromagnetic communicative. Looking at the Drake equation factors, reports Astrobio.net, it is obvious that none can be precisely determined by modern science. More than that, as we move from the left to right in the equation, estimating each factor becomes more controversial. The later terms are highly speculative, and the values one may attribute to each of them might tell more about a person’s beliefs than about scientific facts. But the Drake equation must not be evaluated only by the numerical values it produces. Some say the Drake equation is a way to organize our igannance. By exposing the extraterrestrial intelligence hypothesis mathematically, we limit the real possibilities to each term and approach the final answer: how many alien civilizations are there? CONTINUE READING: www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2013/09/the-great-silence-beyond-drakes-equation-todays-most-popular.html
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Post by bewildered on Sept 24, 2013 15:14:07 GMT -6
This is what I think - Speculation is when we make a prediction or guess expecting or wanting an outcome or result. Science is about making assumptions or guesses to gain knowledge with no expectations on the outcome. Therefore failure in speculation causes disappointment. Failure in science leads to new knowledge! - That you were wrong I like your direction here, Srinivas. I would modify it in the following manner: Science is the pursuit of knowledge acquired through observation, measurement, and analysis of phenomena that can be observed, measured, and analyzed. The scientific method is a system devised to reduce the entropy effect of observer bias through falsification. Every hypothesis has a corresponding null hypothesis. It is in this manner that failure in fact equates to success in scientific endeavors. There is nothing inherently wrong about setting sail with a particular destination in mind, even if it is a destination you don't know to exist. Through consistent use of the scientific method, you will either discover your destination or arrive at a completely different place than what you initially expected. Either way, you have gained something invaluable. The Drake equation is a hypothesis, nothing more, and I think you nailed it precisely, Srinivas. It's conjecture. Science proceeds one step at a time, falsifying itself along the way. It is dynamic and never stagnant, and that's at the core of why I love it so much.
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Post by satansrini on May 11, 2014 7:25:24 GMT -6
Like Skywalker said, that is a good idea Satansrini about adding the moons into the equation ! Good thinking on that ! It could even magnify the equation more . I never thought of it either or heard it mentioned before. I think the Drake equation is an understatement . When the James Webb telescope is launched into orbit I have the feeling that many more solar systems will be discovered with many more planets being possible candidates for life . What a great era we live in for scientific discoveries ! Hello Cliff and rest of my friends How are you all doing? I am back (not that anyone misses me )and hope to be regular from now on. I like the new forum - don't know how long has it been this way but for me, it is new. I like the Notifications space, you can now 'like' what someone writes. These features are cool. I think chat is also active though I don't know how many use it. I still am to figure out what these 'Shouts' are about! So.. it has been a while since you write this particular response Cliff.. over 2 1/2 years. So did they get the James Webb telescope into the orbit yet? Regards, Srinivas
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Post by auntym on May 11, 2014 11:22:24 GMT -6
welcome back srini...it's nice to see you back again...
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2014 13:20:28 GMT -6
Like Skywalker said, that is a good idea Satansrini about adding the moons into the equation ! Good thinking on that ! It could even magnify the equation more . I never thought of it either or heard it mentioned before. I think the Drake equation is an understatement . When the James Webb telescope is launched into orbit I have the feeling that many more solar systems will be discovered with many more planets being possible candidates for life . What a great era we live in for scientific discoveries ! Hello Cliff and rest of my friends How are you all doing? I am back (not that anyone misses me )and hope to be regular from now on. I like the new forum - don't know how long has it been this way but for me, it is new. I like the Notifications space, you can now 'like' what someone writes. These features are cool. I think chat is also active though I don't know how many use it. I still am to figure out what these 'Shouts' are about! So.. it has been a while since you write this particular response Cliff.. over 2 1/2 years. So did they get the James Webb telescope into the orbit yet? Regards, Srinivas Hi Srini and everyone! Great to see you back my friend. I think the James Webb telescope will be in orbit in 2018 ( relying on memory) . I have to keep this reply short because of the problems I'm still having with this computer. Darn computers !
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Post by swamprat on Jun 3, 2014 19:12:30 GMT -6
How The New Mega-Earth Will Change Our Search For Extraterrestrial LifeLeslie Baehr On June 2, scientists announced the discovery of a brand new type of planet — a rocky giant 17 times Earth’s mass, which they dubbed a “mega-Earth.”
Mega-Earths were thought to be impossible based on what we know and thought about how planets form. This planet’s existence prompts many questions about rocky planets — the most likely candidates to harbor life. While the mega-Earth itself is thought to be too close to its sun and too hot to harbor life, its discovery has changed how we think about searching for habitable exoplanets in two big ways: Huge and habitable
It was previously thought that once a planet reached the mass of 10 Earths, it would accrue so much hydrogen that it would turn into a gas giant like Jupiter, a planet without a surface.
Because of this, scientists had not looked to these large planets as places where life could form, or more specifically, where we could land and set up shop (in the distant future in which interstellar travel might be possible).
Ancient Earths Not only did they think the planet was too big to be rocky, they also thought it was too old. The mega-Earth orbits a star that is 11 billion years old, formed less than 3 billion years after the Big Bang. At that time, the ingredients to make a rocky planet were scarce.
Scientists were very surprised to find a rocky ancient planet that had formed when its constituent ingredients were not abundant in the universe.
We may now have to cast a second look on ancient solar systems since we previously thought they could never have rocky, Earth-like planets.
The search begins anew With these two extraordinary facts in hand, scientists may want to rescan solar systems with giant or old planets, to check if they could be rocky and Earth-like instead of gaseous. This discovery is likely to lead to many more mega-Earth planets, hopefully ones ripe for life.
One equation in particular shows just how a new type of potentially habitable planet could change the life-hunting game: the Drake equation. It’s a way of estimating the number of intelligent communicative civilizations that might exist in the Milky Way.
Here it is in its full mathy goodness, thanks to Wikipedia:
The Drake equation is:N = R* - fp –ne – fe – fi – fc - L where: N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone); and R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations) fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
While the equation is controversial and is primarily used for “stimulating intellectual curiosity,” it is interesting to consider how it might change in light of the new findings.
The mega-Earth finding is likely to increase the variable ne,the number of planets in a solar system suitable for life. That will increase our estimation of the N, the number of intelligent, extraterrestrial civilizations out there.
Without finding this mega-Earth we might never have thought to look at these giant planets.
www.businessinsider.com.au/mega-earth-changes-search-for-life-2014-6
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Post by satansrini on Jun 5, 2014 14:49:14 GMT -6
I just logged in to post the same story Now that you have.. Idon't need to. It is intriguing isn't it?!!
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Post by swamprat on Apr 28, 2016 17:56:23 GMT -6
Drake Equation Revision Hugely Ups Odds Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists A new study revises the famous Drake equation, and gives optimists some more support.
Neel V. Patel April 28, 2016
Mankind doesn’t explore space solely in search of extraterrestrials, but we keep our eyes peeled. Still, scientists know that the chances of happening across a fellow traveler in the great beyond are minimal — and they wrap their heads around the infinitesimal odds using the Drake Equation, a seven-variable way of deriving the chance of active civilizations existing beyond Earth.
But equations get older and equations get wrong. The Drake Equation, which takes into account various factors like the rate of star formation, the fraction of stars that could form planetary systems, the number habitable planets in those systems, and so on, is now 55 years old. It doesn’t reflect the new information SETI researchers have collected since the 1960s.
A new study published in the journal Astrobiology seeks to integrate new exoplanet data as part of the Drake Equation while demonstrating the role of “pessimism” and “optimism” in estimating the odds of finding E.T. (you don’t find what you don’t look for).
“The question of whether advanced civilizations exist elsewhere in the universe has always been vexed with three large uncertainties in the Drake equation,” said University of Rochester astronomer and study coauthor Adam Frank in a statement. “We’ve known for a long time approximately how many stars exist. We didn’t know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.”
Estimates derived by projects running under NASA’s Kepler satellite and a few other instruments suggest the 2 x 10^22 stars in the universe, 20 percent have planets that reside in habitable zones that have temperatures, atmospheres, and other traits that could support life. So that takes care of one uncertainty.
That leaves two other questions:
1) How often would life evolve? 2) How long could those civilizations survive for?
That last one is a particularly tough question to answer, since we can only really work off the history of human civilization — and we haven’t died off yet.
That’s where the notion of pessimism and optimism arise. Frank and Sullivan write that their method requires only establishing how low the probability that humans are the only intelligent species to have ever evolved is. They call this the pessimism line. “If the actual probability is greater than the pessimism line,” said Frank, “then a technological species and civilization has likely happened before.”
Using current SETI and exoplanet data, Frank and Sullivan ended up calculating this number at one in 10 billion trillion. That’s incredibly small — which means the odds that another intelligent species has evolved are very, very good.
“Think of it this way,” said Frank. “Before our result you’d be considered a pessimist if you imagined the probability of evolving a civilization on a habitable planet were, say, one in a trillion. But even that guess, one chance in a trillion, implies that what has happened here on Earth with humanity has in fact happened about a 10 billion other times over cosmic history!”
The researchers emphasize that this revised interpretation of the Drake equation accounts for the entire 13.78 billion year history of the universe — while the original localizes the odds of finding E.T. to the present day.
That being said, optimism for finding alien life has never been higher. After all, three famous names just started a multi-million dollar project to look for aliens in Alpha Centauri — the closest star system to the Earth — and some prominent scientists think there’s a good chance we’ll find something special. There’s certainly never been a better time to be an E.T. optimist.
www.inverse.com/article/14957-drake-equation-revision-hugely-ups-odds-intelligent-extraterrestrial-life-exists
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Post by auntym on May 19, 2016 13:43:20 GMT -6
www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alien-civilizations-planets-study_us_57322800e4b096e9f092e60d THE DRAKE EQUATION Alien Civilizations May Number In The Trillions, New Study Says“We really do know that pretty much every star in the sky hosts at least one planet,” says astronomer Adam Frank.by Lee Speigel / Writer, Editor, The Huffington Post / www.huffingtonpost.com/lee-speigel/05/19/2016 NASA / Reuters This colorful deep space image captured by the Hubble Space Telescope was released by NASA in 2014. What’s astonishing about the image is that it depicts a very small portion of the sky but shows approximately 10,000 galaxies, each made up of billions of stars. The possibility that we earthlings are not truly alone in the universe has gained some added credibility, thanks to a new study that coincides with NASA’s recent planetary discoveries. The research, published in the journal Astrobiology last week, suggests that more planets in the Milky Way galaxy may harbor advanced civilizations than we previously imagined. Study co-authors Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan looked at recent discoveries of potentially habitable exoplanets and considered the odds of whether sophisticated civilizations existed on them in the past or present. “What we showed was the ‘floor’ on the probability for a civilization to form on any randomly chosen planet,” Frank, a University of Rochester physics and astronomy professor, told The Huffington Post in an email. “If we are the only civilization in cosmic history, then that what we calculated is the actual probability nature has set. But if the actual probability is higher than that floor, then civilizations have happened before.” Frank says the potential number of planets orbiting their parent stars within a habitable distance is staggering. “Even if you are pretty pessimistic and think that you’d have to search through 100 billion (habitable zone) planets before you found one where a civilization developed, then there have still been a trillion civilizations over cosmic history!” Frank wrote. “When I think about that, my mind reels — even if there is just a one in a 100 billion chance of evolution creating exo-civilizations, the universe still has made so many of them that we are swamped by histories other than our own.” In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake — founder of the SETI Institute (SETI stands for “Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence”) — devised what is now known as the “Drake equation” to estimate the number of planets that may be home to civilizations with the ability to communicate beyond their world. Frank and Sullivan created a new equation, which appears at the bottom of the illustration below. While the Drake equation calculates the number of advanced alien civilizations that could exist in the Milky Way galaxy, Frank and Sullivan’s equation expands the question to calculate the number of advanced civilizations that have existed in our galaxy throughout the whole history of the universe. University of Rochester Two equations consider the possibilities of technological alien civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy: At top, the 1961 Drake equation and, at bottom, a more recent equation by Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan. The variable factors that Drake and others consider when attempting to come up with figures about ET-inhabited worlds include: The rate of formation of stars with planets suitable for intelligent life. The number of those stars that have planetary systems. The number of those planets which may have life-sustaining environments. The number of those planets where life develops. How many of those planets produce intelligent life. How many of those intelligent life forms could produce technology, such as radio signals. In their Astrobiology paper, Frank and Sullivan write: CONTINUE READING: www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alien-civilizations-planets-study_us_57322800e4b096e9f092e60d
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2016 9:45:17 GMT -6
Populated worlds probably do number in the trillions but most likely the bulk of them are somewhat like us in development or have grown past the need to 'search' the stars or haven't the interest in that direction. We kind of figure (our ego again) that everyone would want to meet and greet neighbors. Maybe some races have been much smarter and grown slower or wiser in their choices. Maybe they didn't wreck their planets or using some imagination here..maybe some are water beings..or sky beings who fly or forests of fairies...squid people..hawk people..races of intelligent fruit flies..life..doesn't mean it's like us. Not that we're any great standard for the universe.
We are a curious lot..but we're also not the best to be out there until we get a handle on our bigotry and selfishness and greed..and you know..that's what a LOT of our people would be interested in. Is there gold on them thar planets??? We sort of already pulled that with the American Indian and other more naive people. There may be some races with space travel or dimensions who know of doorways if they exist. I am guessing that the hazards of interstellar space travel are much worse than just worrying about radiation.
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Post by auntym on Jan 14, 2017 14:57:57 GMT -6
www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/opinion/sunday/yes-there-have-been-aliens.html?_r=2 Yes, There Have Been AliensGray Matter By ADAM FRANK / www.adamfrankscience.com/ JUNE 10, 2016 LAST month astronomers from the Kepler spacecraft team announced the discovery of 1,284 new planets, all orbiting stars outside our solar system. The total number of such “exoplanets” confirmed via Kepler and other methods now stands at more than 3,000. This represents a revolution in planetary knowledge. A decade or so ago the discovery of even a single new exoplanet was big news. Not anymore. Improvements in astronomical observation technology have moved us from retail to wholesale planet discovery. We now know, for example, that every star in the sky likely hosts at least one planet. But planets are only the beginning of the story. What everyone wants to know is whether any of these worlds has aliens living on it. Does our newfound knowledge of planets bring us any closer to answering that question? A little bit, actually, yes. In a paper published in the May issue of the journal Astrobiology, the astronomer Woodruff Sullivan and I show that while we do not know if any advanced extraterrestrial civilizations currently exist in our galaxy, we now have enough information to conclude that they almost certainly existed at some point in cosmic history. Continue reading the main story Among scientists, the probability of the existence of an alien society with which we might make contact is discussed in terms of something called the Drake equation. In 1961, the National Academy of Sciences asked the astronomer Frank Drake to host a scientific meeting on the possibilities of “interstellar communication.” Since the odds of contact with alien life depended on how many advanced extraterrestrial civilizations existed in the galaxy, Drake identified seven factors on which that number would depend, and incorporated them into an equation. The first factor was the number of stars born each year. The second was the fraction of stars that had planets. After that came the number of planets per star that traveled in orbits in the right locations for life to form (assuming life requires liquid water). The next factor was the fraction of such planets where life actually got started. Then came factors for the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligence and advanced civilizations (meaning radio signal-emitting) evolved. The final factor was the average lifetime of a technological civilization. Drake’s equation was not like Einstein’s E=mc2. It was not a statement of a universal law. It was a mechanism for fostering organized discussion, a way of understanding what we needed to know to answer the question about alien civilizations. In 1961, only the first factor — the number of stars born each year — was understood. And that level of igannance remained until very recently. That’s why discussions of extraterrestrial civilizations, no matter how learned, have historically boiled down to mere expressions of hope or pessimism. What, for example, is the fraction of planets that form life? Optimists might marshal sophisticated molecular biological models to argue for a large fraction. Pessimists then cite their own scientific data to argue for a fraction closer to 0. But with only one example of a life-bearing planet (ours), it’s hard to know who is right. CONTINUE READING: www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/opinion/sunday/yes-there-have-been-aliens.html?_r=2
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Post by jcurio on Jan 14, 2017 20:15:26 GMT -6
Okay, here's the super easy way. 😁
Our solar system, as we know it, revolves around ONE star. In our solar system, as we know it, we are the only planet showing life forms that are capable of making "radio signals".
No matter how many planets (and let's throw in "natural - made planets" AND "artificial - made planets") revolve around ONE star, there is ONE planet in that solar system showing life forms that are capable of . . . .
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Post by jcurio on Jan 14, 2017 20:16:42 GMT -6
(at least ONE. 😉)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2017 23:57:55 GMT -6
oh yes..there have been aliens
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Post by spotless38 on Jan 15, 2017 18:57:38 GMT -6
LOL Aliens as we know them (not from Earth ) but from other planets do exist . Just think about this ..... for every star there is planets revolving around it ( a star is a sun ) To get back to this subject if you look at the night sky on a clear night you will see many stars and every star has planets revolving around it . There is life on these planets ... But we have been visited by very few Aliens . Maybe in the future we will meet some of them . Some of us already did ..
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Post by jcurio on Jan 15, 2017 19:59:51 GMT -6
Spotless! Happy New Year!
How are You? 😊
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Post by spotless38 on Jan 15, 2017 21:06:59 GMT -6
Jcurio... Thak You and the same to you and to all ..My desktop decided to take a poo ... now I have a laptop and I can't get it to print ... Sky is that your buddies ? that doing it to me .
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2017 0:00:05 GMT -6
Oh man Spotless I hope you haven't caught Sky's jinx. Quick call in a priest..have it blessed..
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Post by lois on Jan 16, 2017 0:59:38 GMT -6
LOL Aliens as we know them (not from Earth ) but from other planets do exist . Just think about this ..... for every star there is planets revolving around it ( a star is a sun ) To get back to this subject if you look at the night sky on a clear night you will see many stars and every star has planets revolving around it . There is life on these planets ... But we have been visited by very few Aliens . Maybe in the future we will meet some of them . Some of us already did .. Yes we know they exist . It is so relieving to see you here. I was debating if I should call you. Hope you had a nice holiday season. Be careful ice is down there somewhere right now. hugs Ron
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