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Post by swamprat on Dec 14, 2011 11:38:48 GMT -6
Well, DUH!! Tell me something I DON’T know!! Climatologists Give Up Long Term Hurricane ForecastsTwo Colorado State University climatologists, who have independently been tracking and predicting the severity of hurricanes for nearly 30 years, are abandoning their long-range forecasting efforts. Simply put, the advance predictions just weren't accurate. "We have suspended issuing quantitative forecasts at this extended-range lead time, since they have not proved skillful over the last 20 years," Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray wrote in their annual December report intended to predict the severity of the upcoming year's Atlantic hurricane season. "From a computation perspective, there's enough chaos in weather that I don't know if you'll ever be able to predict it months in advance," Klotzbach told FoxNews.com. Twenty years ago, Klotzbach decided to push the envelope, to see how early he could predict the season. The results weren't good. "Beyond five days or so, that's where the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy," Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for NOAA, told FoxNews.com. "Hurricane forecasting has come a long way," Vaccaro said. "Once a storm does land, our forecast skills are quite high in being able to predict where that storm will hit." Read more: www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/12/13/hurricane-predictors-admit-cant-predict-hurricanes/?test=faces#ixzz1gWrAb3KY
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Post by paulette on Dec 14, 2011 11:47:50 GMT -6
Another admission that fractals play havoc on linear future projections. Can you imagine a weather forecaster saying, "Well there's a hurricane in the Atlantic so we are predicting that Labrador to the Carolinas are in for it. Or some of them are. Maybe. Unless it swings to Cuba. And it could still enter the Gulf of Mexico. People want to know WHEN to stockpile those Hostess Twinkies and bottled water. And alcohol! Instead of keeping some around all the time if you live in Hurricane Bait Alabama or Out to Sea Florida.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2011 12:02:32 GMT -6
~snicker~
In MY house we ALWAYS have stockpiles of food and alcohol... just in case of a disaster... which seems to happen to us a lot... lol... but most Alaskans are that way (I'm sure a lot of rural area Canadians are that way too, huh paulette?)
We have a stockpile of canned goods and dried beans/rice in the basement... a wood stove, a small generator, oil lamps, a kerosine heater, blankets, not to mention copious amounts of "medicinal" alcohol hehehe...
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