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Post by plutronus on Dec 21, 2012 10:42:56 GMT -6
Human link to climate change stronger than ever: Draft reportFrom: www.ecnmag.com/news/2012/12/human-link-climate-change-stronger-ever-draft-reportTue, 12/18/2012 - 12:45pm Nina Chestney and Alister Doyle, --Reuters
(Reuters) - International climate scientists are more certain than ever that humans are responsible for global warming, rising sea levels and extreme weather events, according to a leaked draft report by an influential panel of experts.
The early draft, which is still subject to change before a final version is released in late 2013, showed that a rise in global average temperatures since pre-industrial times was set to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, and may reach 4.8 Celsius.
"It is extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperatures since the 1950s," the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) draft report said.
"Extremely likely" in the IPCC's language means a level of certainty of at least 95 percent. The next level is "virtually certain", or 99 percent, the greatest possible certainty for the scientists.
The IPCC's previous report, in 2007, said it was at least 90 percent certain that human activities, led by burning fossil fuels, were the cause of rising temperatures.
The draft was shown on a climate change skeptic blog.
The IPCC said the unauthorized, premature posting of the draft may lead to confusion because the report was still work in progress and was likely to change before it is released.
A United Nations conference last week aimed at curbing emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warning yielded no progress and three countries - Canada, Russia and Japan - have abandoned the Kyoto Protocol limiting the emissions.
The United States never ratified it in the first place, and it excludes developing countries where emissions are growing most quickly.
Countries agreed to extend Kyoto to 2020, but only those covering less than 15 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions signed up. Developing nations said they would push next year for a radical U.N. mechanism to compensate them for the impact of climate change.
The IPCC said it had "high confidence" that human activity had caused large-scale changes in oceans, in ice sheets or mountain glaciers, and in sea levels in the second half of the twentieth century, according to the draft.
It said some extreme weather events had also changed due to human influences.THREAT TO CITIESThe draft's scenarios forecast a rise in temperatures of between 0.2 and 4.8 Celsius this century - a narrower band than in 2007. But in almost all of the scenarios, the rise would exceed 2 degrees Celsius.
Governments pledged in 2010 to try to stop global temperatures rising by more than 2 degrees, a threshold seen by scientists as the maximum to avoid more extreme weather, droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts.
Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were the highest in 800,000 years, according to the draft report.
The draft also said that sea levels were likely to rise by between 29 and 82 centimeters by the end of the century - compared to 18-59 centimeters projected in the 2007 report.
Rising sea levels are a threat to people living in low-lying areas, from Bangladesh to the cities of New York, London and Buenos Aires. They open up the risk of storm surges, coastal erosion and, in the worst case scenario, the complete swamping of large areas of land.
The IPCC carries weight because it brings together all scientific research on climate change and informs policymakers.
Many countries want to study the final IPCC report before signing up to a new global pact to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The draft included a possible future acceleration of ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland, which was omitted in 2007. It stopped short of including some research carried out since 2007 that suggested seas may rise by up to 2 meters by 2100.
(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 13:30:38 GMT -6
It amuses me that everyone thinks the world is warming up-
And it's supposedly affecting the arctic and antarctic regions the hardest...
And yet I, a person who lives just south of the arctic circle, am experiencing one of the coldest winters we've had in the past ten years or so.
Its -50 right now in Interior Alaska. Usually it doesn't get this cold until January/February... and yet the temperature has been dropping down to -40 since November of this year.
Hmmmmm...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 13:33:20 GMT -6
Our heating oil bill does not agree with the global warming theory... not at all. My sister's husband is actually right now at this very moment trying to find the metal cap to our fuel oil tank so we can dip the tank to check the level... it's hard to find things under 14 inches of snow...
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Post by skywalker on Dec 21, 2012 20:12:54 GMT -6
The problem with these global warming/climate change theories is that global warming has become a political issue rather than a scientific one and as such it is going to be promoted by political activists who want to use it to promote their political agenda.
All through the article there is evidence of that. For instance when it said that developing countries are going to push for a radical UN proposal so they can be compensated for the effects of climate change...what that means is that some countries want other countries to give them money. If that isn't a political motivation to push the global warming agenda I don't know what is. Like they say, money talks.
These climate change groups always put out papers and reports saying that the globe is warming and that it is even worse than they imagined and we are all going to fry like chickens and die but they never have any convincing evidence to back up what they say.
I still haven't seen any evidence to support the idea that global warming is caused by man, or that it is even happening in the first place. In more than two decades of searching I have yet to find a single piece of evidence to support it. The evidence I have found actually refutes it. For instance we know that it was hotter 100 years ago than it is now, and it was hotter 500 years ago than it was 100 years ago. In between the warming periods there were periods of cooling because that is the natural cycle that exists and has been existing for billions of years.
I don't mean to be getting up here on my political soap box and ranting and raving to people but I just don't see any evidence to support it. If somebody can find some I would love to see it.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 23:00:50 GMT -6
By the time it's proven...it may be too late to reverse...if real. I do know a lot of glaciers are melting and falling apart but I don't KNOW that's from global warming. Our weather hasn't changed that much in S. Cal..but the amount of tornadoes and really bad hurricanes is pretty frightening back east.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 2:40:48 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 3:43:21 GMT -6
I'm right in between on this subject because I can see it from both ways. I don't believe there has been enough accurate data over a long term to relate to a difference. It does appear however that there is a loss of ice in Antarctica among other signs.
I do understand that this ecosystem is tied into itself like a living organism with one thing relying upon another for survival and that mankind is making a difference in a harmful way that needs immediate changes.
We have depleted forests and caused mass extinction of species and this continues affecting the cycle, not to mention the spread of chemicals and radiation as well as ozone depletion from many sources causing holes in the upper atmosphere and allowing uv rays to penetrate the planet .Have I mentioned pollution yet ? That's a big one.
Despite the fact that I was told back in the 1980's that things were going to be much worse in 2000 than what it really was causes me to reserve room for uncertainty. Storm systems do seem to be getting intense even more now .
I do think changes need to be done immediately if it isn't too late already. It comes down from Govt's. to each individual person to make a difference and be consciously aware of what is happening and caring more for this planet that we rely on and our children for generations to come.
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Post by skywalker on Dec 22, 2012 7:42:34 GMT -6
We can make all the changes regarding pollution that we want. I'm all in favor of cutting down on pollution and cleaning up the planet. I am not however in favor of expanding government and giving them more power which I believe is what this whole global warming scam is about. It is a way for private businesses to be attacked and taken over by Big Government. It's a way for communism and socialism to finally wipe out the free-market system so that the government can have supreme power and totalitarian control.
I think the dangers of an out of control government are just as dangerous if not more so than any type of climate change that could theoretically destroy the planet. We have seen abusive governments before and millions of people were murdered by them as a result of their stupid power-hungry policies. Would that certainty be preferable to a global warming theory that still hasn't even been proven?
We all know what the government is going to do because they have done it numerous times before in places like Nazi Germany, Brazil and the USSR when Stalin was in charge. We don't know what the Earth is going to do or what effect it will have. I think we need to find out for sure that this global warming/climate change thing is even real before we willingly hand over our freedom to a bunch of tyrants hoping that they will not do what they have done repeatedly in the past.
I want to see some evidence! I'm not trying to disprove global warming. I don't have any political agenda. I just want to see some real irrefutable evidence and so far I haven't seen any. If somebody can find some then by all means show it to me because I want to see it.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 9:34:38 GMT -6
We can make all the changes regarding pollution that we want. I'm all in favor of cutting down on pollution and cleaning up the planet. I am not however in favor of expanding government and giving them more power which I believe is what this whole global warming scam is about. It is a way for private businesses to be attacked and taken over by Big Government. It's a way for communism and socialism to finally wipe out the free-market system so that the government can have supreme power and totalitarian control. I think the dangers of an out of control government are just as dangerous if not more so than any type of climate change that could theoretically destroy the planet. We have seen abusive governments before and millions of people were murdered by them as a result of their stupid power-hungry policies. Would that certainty be preferable to a global warming theory that still hasn't even been proven? We all know what the government is going to do because they have done it numerous times before in places like Nazi Germany, Brazil and the USSR when Stalin was in charge. We don't know what the Earth is going to do or what effect it will have. I think we need to find out for sure that this global warming/climate change thing is even real before we willingly hand over our freedom to a bunch of tyrants hoping that they will not do what they have done repeatedly in the past. I want to see some evidence! I'm not trying to disprove global warming. I don't have any political agenda. I just want to see some real irrefutable evidence and so far I haven't seen any. If somebody can find some then by all means show it to me because I want to see it. Yep. It's too dirty for us to do it because of restrictions so we hand the job over to a 3rd world country who isn't even an ally and they corner the market because it's cheaper and less regulated. Meanwhile back on the same planet it all comes back on us one way or another regardless who makes it or how but guess who reaps the rewards for it all ? Mmm hmm, small businesses can't compete and jobs are lost. It's much easier to have controlled sweat shops in some far off labor camp where nobodies paying any attention to. When I was in the Union we upheld 'Made in America' and honored it which is something I believe in but nowadays it's almost impossible to find anything that is. I remember people driving up in their rice burners and being 'ejected' from the job site,,,lol. The sign at our Carpenters Hall in K.C. says " If you drive a foreign vehicle do not even think about parking it here" lol.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 11:53:46 GMT -6
Well..we do stupid things (not us but 'us') cutting down the rain forests..cutting our own forests..pollution..polluting the waters..damaging the ozone..those ARE facts. That might or might not cause global warming but it does for sure..damage our Eco system..so..in the long run..climate change isn't going to matter much methinks.
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Post by bewildered on May 19, 2013 14:20:37 GMT -6
A tad old, but considering the article I posted yesterday, relevant. The problem with these global warming/climate change theories is that global warming has become a political issue rather than a scientific one and as such it is going to be promoted by political activists who want to use it to promote their political agenda. Out of curiosity, what precisely is the political agenda underpinning those who support the overwhelming scientific consensus of human causes behind global warming? I'd love to hear it. Gotcha. So the United States, despite sporting 4.52% of world's current population, consumes 25% of the world's energy resources; and in American economic ventures around the world, we contribute to things like deforestation, massive CO2 emissions, and the like which has a decidedly detrimental effect upon ecosystems found in various parts of the globe, not to mention our own. Folks who make a living fishing and farming, through no fault of their own, are impacted by the wanton destruction of the environment by the megacorps. The BP oil well fracas in the Gulf of Mexico is an excellent example of how the pollution of the environment destroys the livelihood of people in "undeveloped" areas. They shouldn't be held responsible, right? Entire communities and regions in undeveloped areas should just suck it up because hey, those are the breaks? Of course, all they are trying to do is "get more money." Research has shown that supplying people with scientific data alone accomplishes very little. You're an excellent example of that fact in action, because you consistently deny the evidence furnished by peer-reviewed scientific research whenever the topic of global warming arises. In a different post elsewhere, you actually denied that the Greenhouse Effect is real. Wow. Political action is the only route to take, because efforts to stop ruining the environment are fought tooth and nail by the very corporations who are robbing you blind. It's ironic that you support their propaganda campaign. Incorrect. There is a wealth of scientific evidence supporting the fact that A.) the globe is warming; and B.) Human activity is the primary causative factor behind this global trend. P.S. - Please point out one peer-reviewed scientific study that claims we are going to "fry like chickens." Seriously, hyperbole and mischaracterization does not establish a valid point, sky. Attempting to belittle an opposing opinion by misrepresenting it is a naughty no-no. Shame on you! You haven't seen it, sky, because you've never looked. As you've noted elsewhere, you reject scientific research and evidence. Ironically, you reject the findings of an overwhelming majority of the world's scientists because you think they don't know what they are doing. Why? Obviously, you believe those who say otherwise. Interesting. You don't mean to, but you are. No biggie, because I'm willing to step up and disagree with you. An article I recently shared here on the forum discusses 4,000 peer-reviewed studies relating to global warming executed in the past 20 years. The fact that you haven't "seen" them doesn't mean they don't exist. You can deny them all you want to, but they're there.
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